The confluence of a strengthening US Dollar, hardening US bond yields and heightened geopolitical risks continue to exert pressure on emerging economies globally. Despite the resilience that the Indian economy has demonstrated so far, it has not been entirely immune to these headwinds. India’s GDP numbers of 6.2% till Q3 FY2025 have been lower as compared to the 9.2% and 7.6% growth seen in the past two years. The current tariff rates of 26% is likely to lead to some drawdowns in the country’s GDP. However, India seems largely cushioned as compared to peers owing to a lower share of…

A weak manufacturing sector, a slowdown in growth, lower corporate earnings led by a weak consumption have led to a slowdown in the Indian economy. Investors who enjoyed over 20% returns each year for over 4 years until September 2024 are seeing red in their one-year returns.  A look at the 5-year returns, however, continues to look impressive. Capital outflows from India (particularly in the equity segment) have been driven by steadily climbing yields on the US 10-year Treasury bonds, increasing from an average of 3.72% in September 2024 to 4.45% in February 2025. A significant slowdown in manufacturing is…

The year ended on a positive note, with the Indian markets remaining resilient and ending on a positive note. 2024 remained a marquee year, with multiple events that marked the year including delayed rate cuts owing to the US elections.  While the ‘December effect’ could have had a role to play, the markets failed to make good all the losses that it made over the past year. We witnessed a slowdown in the Indian economy with the GDP growth failing to meet projections. Indian wages too seemed to contract as corporate profits slumped and consumer spending was cut sharply. Small…

Indian markets have been touching new highs on an ongoing basis and the one question that market participants and investors seem to be asking is this: Is this growth sustainable? Markets have remained volatile and are likely to remain range bound going forward. Expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the US FED is already priced in and may not have an immediate impact as such. However, a 50 bps rate cut is likely to have a greater impact on the markets. The month of August witnessed a few ups and downs, despite the Nifty gaining over 1.66%, and…

The month of July witnessed marquee events, a union budget that centered around nine core areas and balanced fiscal prudence with growth. The lowering of fiscal deficit numbers to 4.9% compared to the previous 5.1% outlined in the previous budget, and a commitment to reach below 4.5% by FY 2025-26 is a huge positive. This crucial development lays the groundwork for a resilient economy, one that is capable of long-term growth and development. To read more about our budget outlook click here. We expect to see a significant increase in tax as well as non-tax revenue and a positive gross…